Modelling and Analysis is the use of technical processes to understand the characteristics of a system or the probability of an event occurring. Modelling allows predictions and inference to be made considering complex systems and their environments. Analysis is the transformation of data or inputs to provide understanding of the scenario. The use of modelling and analysis techniques allows complex scenarios to be analysed and understood in a controlled way.
There is a wide range of modelling and analysis techniques, each valuable in varying contexts. Some of the primary techniques Capability Partners uses are as follows:
- Reliability, Availability, Maintainability, Supportability and Dependability analysis – The use of predicted or field data, combined with statistical analysis methods, to understand the characteristics of an item or system.
- Reliability Block Modelling – A diagrammatic method for showing how the inherent characteristics of items contribute to the failure of the higher level system. This can be used to model how all assets in an asset portfolio contribute to organisational objectives.
- Functional Block Modelling – A block diagram describing the functions and interrelationships of a system.
- Fault Tree Analysis/Event Tree Analysis – Top-down analyses of an undesired state using Booleon Logic. Fault Trees establish relationships between events where as Event Trees focus on the sequence of events.
- Markov Analysis – A techniques describing a sequence of possible events in which the probability of each events depends on the state achieved in the previous event.
- Monte Carlo – Computational algorithms that use repeated random sampling to obtain results. Monte Carlo can be used in conjunction with the other modelling and analysis techniques described.
Capability Partners has used these modelling and analysis techniques to support organisations in the following ways:
- Analysis of field data for decision support
- Support of the development of maintenance programs
- Improve Asset Management Systems
- Calculation of the probability of identified risks occurring, probability of mitigations failing and demonstration that risks are mitigated SFARP
- Modelling and analysis of designs to recommend design changes for improved inherent characteristics for minimal cost
- Support of design verification for complex systems
Modelling and analysis are techniques are often bound by assumptions. Consequently, they can be misused and executed poorly, resulting in inaccurate outputs. When applied correctly, modelling and analysis are powerful tools which can significantly reduce risk in decision making.
Utilising modelling and CP analysis experts to undertake the process and support decision making increases the effectiveness of the strategy and reduces risk to the organisation.